Thursday Night Special

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Pittsburgh Steelers Vs. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore, MD

My Pick: Pittsburgh 24, Baltimore 20

What I See Happening: I won’t buy into the distraction factor of what’s going on in Baltimore, since I truly don’t believe most professional football players let this stuff get in the way of doing their jobs. That being said, Baltimore tripped over their own feet too often against the Bengals, yet still managed to keep it close in the end. Their lack of a sustainable running game will allow the Steelers to play a one-dimensional defensive game, while Ben Roethlisberger should find success against the Ravens in the middle of the field. That, coupled with a solid running game, will give the Steelers another big divisional win.

Sizing ‘Em Up

QB: Joe Flacco is the most overpaid player in the league, regardless of position. He’s essentially Carson Palmer, and with the protection issues Baltimore displayed in week one, he should be pressured into a bad game. Roethlisberger, on the other hand, has always been the better passer and looks more athletically fit this year than in recent seasons. His ability to stretch plays will put at least one touchdown on the board.

RB: Le’Veon Bell is quickly looking like a stud for the Steelers, while the Ravens lack a permanent fixture. Bernard Pierce is capable, and last week showed us that Justin Forsett can offer a solid change of pace, but this team is lacking punch across the offensive line. Both teams may find some success on the ground, but Bell should easily be the leading rusher.

WR: Torrey and Steve Smith are formidable, and Dennis Pitta is a threat and constant target for Flacco, but Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown is simply the superior at the position amongst both teams. Beyond him, Markus Wheaton and TE Heath Miller provide ample targets. The matchup here is close, but I’ll give the edge to the team who suits up the best WR: Pittsburgh.

Offensive line: The Steelers’ line isn’t exactly a group of worldbeaters, but compared to Baltimore, they’re more than suitable.

Defensive line: Pittsburgh keys off of their linebackers, but their defensive line performed well in week one. Baltimore has more beef up front, and more talent, so I’ll give them the nod on this one.

Linebackers: The Steelers continue to produce excellent talent at the position, and few teams can match what they’ve got at the moment. The continued growth of rookie Ryan Shazier is going to be fun to watch. Baltimore has skill here as well, but Pittsburgh is a linebacker machine that keeps going and going and going…

Secondary: I’ll take the young legs in Baltimore’s secondary over the old guard in Pittsburgh, although either of these situations could result in big plays in the passing games of each team.

Special Teams: Jacoby Jones is dangerous when he can bring down a kick, and the Ravens have the edge in kicking with Justin Tucker. Don’t discount Antonio Brown’s ability as a punt returner, though. Especially if an opposing player finds himself being jump kicked.

Fantasy Start/Sit

This matchup is always difficult for fantasy owners. On one hand, both teams have major potential at certain positions. On the other, all that can go out the window with the way these teams go at each other. That being said, I’d sweep the waver wire before I started either defense, simply because of the aforementioned uncertainty.

Owners should start Le’Veon Bell without prejudice in any matchup. Roethlisberger is worth rolling the dice on, as is Antonio Brown. For the Ravens, I’d bench Flacco (and consider dropping him altogether if it’s feasible) and give Pierce, Steve Smith and/or Dennis Pitta a moment’s consideration.

TMD-B

Your friendly neighborhood Tuesday Morning Double-Back is…back. Huzzah!

Go Fins Go!

As is tradition here at KTN (or at least it was until I stopped doing it last year. Never again.), we’ll start the proceedings with a few words on my favorite team, the Miami Dolphins. I proclaimed they would win and take no credit for the prediction as I felt our chances were as slim as Tom Brady’s significant other. Alas, after a porous first half that our defense managed to keep from turning into a total rout, Knowshon Moreno took the team on his back, Cameron Wake made two pivotal strip-sacks and Ryan Tannehill found his stride in a 33-20 victory of momentous proportions. This is the type of win, against your most difficult division rival, to open your season, that teams can use as fuel for a notable fire going forward. The Dolphins, after one game, are better than they were at any point in 2013.

Catching Our Collective Breath

There wasn’t a game (okay, maybe the Jets-Raiders didn’t exactly burst off the screen) that didn’t grasp my attention on Sunday.

Since so much took place (and when doesn’t it seem like so much on kickoff weekend?), I’m going to break down the performances in tiers from “outstanding” to “time to worry”, in terms of how well (or not so well) the teams did in their victories (or defeats).

Outstanding

Not to continue to toot my own horn, but it cannot be overstated that the Dolphins, in beating the Patriots, started the season on an unbelievably high note. Losing Dannell Ellerbee for the season is probably going to hurt, and losing fellow LB Koa Misi for an unknown length of time won’t help either, but the backups played soundly and the confidence level of this team has to be high after one game.

It was a few days earlier, but the Seahawks simply manhandled one of their toughest conference foes on Thursday night. The Packers had moments, but so few and far between that the Seahawks looked like they had actually improved since winning the Superbowl last year. Frightening.

I made mention of the Buffalo Bills being a breakout candidate this year, but I simply didn’t see it coming in Chicago against a Bears team that has as impressive of an offensive arsenal as any team not playing in Denver. Buffalo’s overtime victory came from a team effort, which is exactly what has been missing from the Bills for the past…20 years? If they can maintain this level of play, no one on their schedule will be unbeatable.

This is borderline outstanding, but the Steelers are working with a somewhat fresh slate from 2013, despite many of the same names across the roster. Their disappointing campaign last year led many to believe them in a decline, while the Browns, with big offseason/draft acquisitions and a new coaching staff, seemed to be in an upswing. Pittsburgh controlled most of the 60 minutes in this game and should only be concerned with allowing the Browns to make a game of it down the stretch. No small concern, but still, a big divisional statement for a team many had written off before the first whistle blew.

Considering what they had to work with, and lacking their superstar QB, the Carolina Panthers went back to basics against an improved Tampa Bay squad on Sunday. Relying heavily on their stable of running backs and a potent defense, Carolina maintained ball control, got some solid work from backup QB Derek Anderson and continuously disrupted the Bucs’ offensive plans. The score doesn’t quite tell the story of this game, but like the aforementioned Steelers, the Panthers cannot allow their competition to stick around after tossing them around for the majority of a game. Hopefully the return of Newton and their dedication to full balanced football can keep that from happening with regularity.

 

Oh, and the Falcons beating the Saints? Biggest upset of the week. Hell of a game, great outcome for Atlanta, and that’s all I have to say about that. For now…

Solid

It had the potential to separate two good teams into one very good team, but last night’s Chargers-Cardinals bout ended up asking more questions than it answered for either squad. Still, despite the struggles of two potent offenses, the Cardinals proved they could stay efficient and still play solid defense despite the offseason losses, suspensions and injuries. They’re still in play in the NFC West so long as they can close out games like this, but some more punch would be nice to see.

The Rams’ inefficiencies on offense kept me from including the Vikings’ blowout victory in the ‘Outstanding’ category, but I do believe this is an excellent taste of what their future opponents are going to have to deal with. A much more stout defense under the wing of head coach Mike Zimmer, and an explosive offense directed by OC Norv Turner. Very early, it seems that Minnesota has a real shot at taking the NFC North.

This goes to both teams, as the Broncos managed to stifle any last-second Luck Magic while the Colts managed to keep the game respectable towards the end when it was anything but for three and a half quarters. Indianapolis has an uphill climb with the recent news of Robert Mathis’ torn Achilles, but they showed heart on defense and held a powerful offense within range of their own. That counts for something. The Broncos, on the other hand, should have played better, and get this spot mostly for the win and also for the potential that their new defensive acquisitions showed. Once that defense comes together, it might be game over for the rest of the AFC.

They Were Who We Thought They Were

In victory, the Bengals, Texans, Titans, Jets, Eagles, 49ers and Lions won games they should have won, so nothing overly spectacular there. In the case of the Bengals and Titans, their opponents were worthy on paper but simply didn’t show up to offer much competition.

Despite their losses, the Packers, Saints, Patriots, Browns, Colts and Chargers are very much capable of bouncing back. The Browns in particular showed incredible resiliency for a young squad, and should continue to improve going forward.

Time To Worry

The trouble in Baltimore doesn’t begin and end with the Ray Rice fiasco, as anyone who watched their stumbling effort against their biggest divisional threat can attest. The Bears need to be concerned about the potency and mistakes of their offense under Jay Cutler, who still seems to be able to look elite and horrible in the same game, sometimes in the same offensive series. The Redskins have no excuses for their embarrassing efforts against Houston, and if they’re going to turn it around, it has to start with Robert Griffin III not playing scared. Because he still is.

The Chiefs are literally falling apart before our eyes. It’s going to take some very crafty coaching from Big Red to keep that ship afloat.

The Raiders kept it respectable, but the Jets did them some favors, and neither team can count on such things every week to help them along.

The Jaguars looked incredibly sound for two quarters, and then reverted to their old selves in a 34-0 second half. It’s hard to be optimistic when you perform a 180 of that magnitude.

The Rams are offensively challenged.

The Cowboys are just challenged. In every way imaginable.

The Bucs were playing against a great defense with a new offensive scheme and new pieces, but something about their performance over 4 quarters rubbed me the wrong way. It was almost as if they couldn’t decide how, or why, they wanted to win…until it was too late.

The Giants, after one game’s worth of ineptitude, have the look of a 2-win squad.

Weekly Awards

QB Of The Week: Matty Ice is back in black…and red.

RB Of The Week: Knowshon Moreno. Put his offense on his back and willed them to victory. Miami hasn’t had a running back do that since Ricky Williams wasn’t sampling the world’s varieties of marijuana.

WR Of The Week: I’m giving this to Megatron because, well, he deserves it. But a very honorable mention to Percy Harvin, who is still as terrifyingly good as he was a couple of years ago.

Offensive Line Of The Week: Minnesota Vikings. You mean, nobody on the Rams recorded a sack? That doesn’t happen much these days. Kudos to the league’s most underrated O-Line.

Defensive Performance Of The Week: Buffalo Bills. Holding the Bears to 20 is no small feat, and the Bills’ defensive line were everywhere, while their secondary came up big when it counted.

Goat Of The Week: RG3. Watch him, and realize, he’s tentative, indecisive, and at this point, the 2nd best QB on the Redskins roster. When you were paid for with three years’ worth of top-tier draft prospects, that is 100% unacceptable.

Coaching Performance Of The Week: Chip Kelly. Totally manhandled after one half, Kelly, I imagine, instilled calm, confidence and an entirely new gameplan for his Eagles and the results were on the scoreboard by the final whistle. With Chip, you feel the Eagles can never fall too far behind as long as there’s time on the clock.

What’s Next

The Ravens have a fast turnaround against another divisional foe as Pittsburgh comes to town on Thursday night. With all the Ray Rice drama swirling, coach John Harbaugh is going to have to get his team centered and forgetful about their disappointing loss on Sunday…fast.

The Dolphins are going to face a test against a Bills team they’ve struggled against in recent years.

The Jaguars and Redskins will compete to see who can make the most mistakes and still win a football game.

In possible bounceback game, can the Cowboys, Patriots, Saints, Chargers, Packers and Bears rebound against solid competition?

Answers: No, Yes, Yes, No, No, No. Check the schedule for all the reasons you need.

Falcons and Bengals is going to be a good one.

Eagles and Colts should be even better.

Final Thoughts

I’ve seen many, many things in my years of watching NFL football, but I’ve never seen someone get kicked in the face. At least, not in the way Antonio Brown kicked Browns’ punter Spencer Lanning while returning a kick. It looked like a scripted scene from an action movie, and it will be thankfully revisited by multiple sports media outlets for weeks.

FLAWLESS VICTORY.

The first week of an NFL season tells us things. Some of these things are sweet lies, some are bitter truths, and some are just simple facts that you have to accept. You know how to figure out which is which?

You watch 15 more games.

Let’s see what happens, shall we?

Week One Primer (2014-2015)

It’s that time! Time to get primed!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Phillip Rivers is primed! Your turn!

Week One Picks

New Orleans 34 – Atlanta 20

This game has all the ingredients for a battle royale, including a team with Superbowl glimmers in their eyes (New Orleans) and a return to relevance in their minds (Atlanta), within the same division and with a notoriously shaky road team (New Orleans) having to travel. Look for the first half to be tight as the Saints dust off their deep playbook and the Falcons put up a strong fight, and then look for New Orleans to run away with it in the 3rd quarter.

Baltimore 23 – Cincinnati 17

One of a few upsets I feel good about in week one, the Ravens are capable of knocking off last year’s divisional winning Bengals at home, and head coach John Harbaugh will not hesitate to emphasize the importance such an early victory would have now and down the stretch. Cincy’s defense is going to be a tall order for Flacco and co. to score against, but I’m banking on an underrated Ravens D to create some opportunities for their offense and kicker extraordinaire Justin Tucker.

Chicago 36 – Buffalo 24

The Bills have plenty of question marks, but I expect them to make a bigger splash this year than most other pundits do. They won’t, however, hit the water in week one, as they travel to Chicago to stare down an offense that looks like it could actually pace the best in the league so long as QB Jay Cutler stays healthy…and stays consistent.

Washington 20 – Houston 17

I read an article today on the mystery factor of this game, and the points made are all tantalizing to imagine: will RG3 regain his form? Will JJ Watt and hyped rookie Jadeveon Clowney begin terrorizing offenses right off the bat? Can the Redskins’ defense kick it up a gear? Can Houston’s offense, under the command of the underwhelming Ryan Fitzpatrick, make the Redskins’ D have to kick it up a gear? Hopefully we get some clarity with this game. Oh, in case you were wondering: I see both teams struggling, but the offensive firepower in Washington tipping the scales for a close victory.

Kansas City 24 – Tennessee 10

So many are doubting the Chiefs, with their offseason losses and little to balance that particular scale. Yet, the bulk of one of the most intimidating defenses in the league is still there, and Alex Smith, content under a new contract, has the ability to make a so-so Tennessee defense look worse than they are. Of course, his throwing options will be limited, but you know that guy…oh, what’s his name…Jamaal Charles? He’ll take care of things. In a big way.

Miami 29 – New England 27

HOMER ALERT!? No, no. These are, traditionally, the games the Dolphins somehow find a way to win; early-season home contests against teams that are clearly better. The south Florida weather will help a Dolphins defense more accustomed to it keep the rest of the team on track, and Tannehill will likely find enough time to get the field goal machine rolling. Gonna be close…unless New England shows up ready to make an early statement. Then the word ‘close’ won’t apply to anything in this game.

New York 23 – Oakland 13

The Jets are going to have a hard time of it this year and make no doubt about that, but if there was ever a team to get off to a good start against, it’s this year’s Oakland Raiders, who are tying their hopes to a rookie QB and a patchwork of newcomer veterans who have minimal tread on their tires. Watch the workload of Chris Johnson and backup Chris Ivory; it could be an indicator of how the Jets’ offense will run going forward.

Philadelphia 30 – Jacksonville 24

You look at this matchup, in Philly, and you start having thoughts of 40+ points and Lesean McCoy lapping a team who has struggled for so long nobody can remember when Tom Coughlin led them to an AFC Championship game. However, the Jaguars are ascending, and despite their hesitation to start preseason darling Blake Bortles over Chad Henne, should put up more of a fight against Chip Kelly’s Green Machine (TM) than you might expect. Just don’t expect them to win.

Pittsburgh 24 – Cleveland 14

Where’s the firepower in Cleveland? On defense. When/if Johnny Football is on the field, and when/if he plays up to expectations, the Browns are going to struggle to keep up with anyone despite their strong (and growing stronger) defensive play. The Steelers are reportedly preparing for Manziel and Hoyer, so I don’t think it’ll matter much if Browns’ OC Kyle Shanahan decides to use the ol’ switcheroo at QB during this one; Pittsburgh will not go quietly this year, and Cleveland will be their first showcase of that.

Minnesota 20 – St. Louis 10

Both offenses will face tough sledding. The Vikings, simply because of the defense across the field from them. The Rams, simply because Sam Bradford is no longer playing QB and nobody can guess how effective new starter Shaun Hill will be with limited reps and prep time. This pick is also being made with the prognostication that the Vikings are going to be a scary team this year, with the progression of young up-and-comers and the stabilizing presence of key veterans to go with a revamped and much improved coaching staff.

Dallas 32 – San Fransisco 28

Shot in the dark. So much seems to be against the Cowboys this year, particular on defense, but I have confidence enough in picking them for the biggest upset of the week. Why? Tony Romo to Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. The 49ers pass rush is going to struggle until Aldon Smith is back, and their secondary isn’t exactly a strength at the corners. Plenty of 3-4 receiver sets, with a balancing bulk of DeMarco Murray touches, can give the Cowboys what they’re looking for. At least at home against a team whose offseason looks like a police blotter.

Tampa Bay 21 – Carolina 16

Hey, I’ll bite on occasion. The Bucs, coming off of a stinker of a 2013, are as revamped a team as any in football. What few seem to realize, however, is that the nucleus of a competitive team has been simmering in Tampa for a few years now. Meanwhile, Cam Newtown is iffy to start and regardless of the QB, who the starter ends up targeting is anyone’s guess. The Bucs will field a quality defense this year, and will hold off the questionable Panthers’ offense at home this week.

Denver 44 – Indianapolis 31

Sunday night is, in my estimation, going to be exactly what the NFL wants it to be my setting this game in the primetime slot; a shootout of memorable proportions. Peyton Manning gets another shot at his former team (whom he is 0-1 against as a Bronco so far), but this time it’ll be on his mile-high field, with a defense that certainly looks better on paper and an offense that, regardless of Wes Welker’s short absence, is to be deeply feared. The Luck of the Colts (TM) will not be pulling off any late-game heroics in this one.

Detroit 34 – New York 14

I’m not one to let a preseason dictate my thoughts of a team once the games matter, but the Giants look shaky on the field and off of it. The Lions can look however they look and still fall apart, but a home opener on the national stage Monday Night should be more than enough motivation to take a suspect Giants team to the cleaner’s.

San Diego 27 – Arizona 24

The last game of the week, late Monday night, is going to be worth staying up for. I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up being the most enjoyable game of the week. These two teams match up incredibly well, and there are questions aplenty about both. If San Diego wants to continue to improve upon 2013’s surprise playoff appearance, they’ll have to get past an Arizona team with an offense that is on the cusp of something special. The Cardinals defense, with the losses of Karlos Dansby, Daryl Washington and Darnell Dockett, may not be the same, and this should give San Diego the wiggle room to pull off a last-minute type of well earned victory.

Fantasy Start ‘Em/Sit ‘Em

Remember this? Here, I give ten fantasy starts and ten sits, and try to avoid the obvious names in favor of my guesses at underdogs/relative unknowns or those solid starters who you may be questionable towards because of unfavorable matchups, injury concerns, etc. Roll the bones.

Start ’em

Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Alex Smith, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Alfred Morris, RB, Washington Redskins (Might seem obvious to some, but I’ve heard speak of concern about one of the best fantasy backs in football, and I’m here to set you all straight. He’s still a must-start, every week.)
Joique Bell, RB, Detroit Lions
Vincent Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Markus Wheaton, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings
Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins
Caleb Sturgis, K, Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens D/ST

Sit ’em

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Chris Johnson, RB, New York Jets (give him a week, but start him if you’ve no other decent option on your bench)
Ben Tate, RB, Cleveland Browns
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons (tough call, but you might get better performance out of someone with less question marks this early in the year)
Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Scott Chandler, TE, Buffalo Bills
Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers (watch this situation in San Diego; I believe Ladarius Green is the TE to own on the Chargers)
Greg Zuerlein, K, St. Louis Rams
49ers Defense/ST

Thursday Night Special

A small new feature this year: pre-game analysis of every Thursday Night contest! Woohoo! Since this is only one game per week, I’m gonna have a little fun with the format. Hope you enjoy it!

Thursday, September 4th, 2014

Green Bay Packers Vs. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle, WA.

My Pick: Seattle 29, Green Bay 24

What I See Happening: The rust is always being shaken off, but as last year’s blowout courtesy of the Broncos showed us, some teams simply show up better prepared from the gate than others. While Green Bay has some real bite to their team, particularly on offense with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, a young and motivated Eddie Lacy and a hungry-for-a-contract Reggie Cobb, I think Seattle’s preseason performance and superior defense will give them the edge in the regular season opener.

Sizing ‘Em Up

QB – I’ll take Rodgers over Russell Wilson anyday, but you cannot discount what the young Wilson brings to the table. His ability to evade pressure, extend plays and accurately put the ball in the right spots will give the shaky Packers defense fits…when they’re not trying to stop this other fella who loves his skittles…

RB – Lacy showed some real skill in his rookie season, but I’ll take the proven veteran in Marshawn Lynch, especially considering their opposing defenses. For fantasy owners of Lacy, I wouldn’t be quick to bench him, as key cogs from Seattle’s run defense (Red Bryant, Chris Clemons) from 2013 are no longer in town. I think both runners will have solid performances, but Lynch is going to be the bigger difference maker.

WR – No comparison here. If the Pack want to pull off a good sized upset tonight, they’ll need Jordy Nelson and Reggie Cobb at their absolute best. For Seattle, Percy Harvin is the X-Factor that needs to be monitored closely; if he can quickly regain his early-2012, MVP-caliber form, their offense is going to start looking dangerous. Doug Baldwin is an excellent compliment and gets the job done, but Nelson/Cobb are just a better and more consistent duo right now.

Offensive Line – Not many realized it, but this was more of a weakness for the Seahawks in 2013 than a strength. Their starting tackles were injured for much of the year and the interior of the line struggled at times. Still, they’re retooled and recovered and have some solid bodies. The Packers are in a similar boat, but with less experience across the board and a harder job in protecting Rodgers from the Seahawks’ volatile pass rush.

Defensive Line – Much depends on the ability of their edge rushing linebackers, but the Packers’ defensive line is still a major question mark. B.J. Raji’s season-ending injury is a major concern going forward. Despite their losses, the Seahawks should field the better D-Line in tonight’s contest.

LB – Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers, if the latter can regain a bit of his younger self’s capabilities, might be as dangerous a one-two pass rush as any in the NFL this year. I doubt the latter will happen, though, and when you sift through the bounty of edge rushers and overall talent the Seahawks have at the linebacker positions, you realize how much of a vital cog it is to their dominant defense. Edge to Seattle.

Secondary: This isn’t even worth discussing, is it? The best defensive backfield (Seattle, in case you’re reading this accidentally and have zero interest in the NFL) in the league makes any other look amateur in comparison.

Special Teams: Both teams have their strengths, but if Cobb isn’t returning punts for the Packers, and Harvin IS returning them for the Seahawks, the scales tip.

Fantasy Start/Sit

You’re going to want (or have) to start Aaron Rodgers, despite the matchup. Lacy is a guy many will consider benching, but I think the odds are in his favor for a decent night. Out of the two main receiving options for the Packers, Jordy Nelson is the more likely candidate for starting, but only as a low-end #2/Flex option. Green Bay’s defense most likely should be benched.

For Seattle, Wilson isn’t a terrible option but you might find a better one in your free agent pool or sitting on your bench, depending on matchups and the size of your league. Start Lynch without prejudice, roll the dice on Harvin as a flex and start the defense with moderate confidence.

2014 AFC East Power Rankings

Format is modified from last year’s preseason PRs. Enjoy.

1. New England Patriots

2013 record: 12-4
Division Winners, Lost In AFC Championship Game

A Year Later…

The Patriots, who were plagued with injuries and the speed bumps of young talent, still managed one of the league’s best records, were undefeated on their own field and came within two scores of another Superbowl appearance in the Belichick-Brady era. The league’s foremost dynasty of the day were there usual selves in the offseason, balancing efforts towards free agency and the draft to augment an already strong team. The additions of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner at CB should at least equalize the loss of Aqib Talib, who performed at a high level for the squad in 2013. The team also brought in ex-Panthers wideout Brandon LaFell, who should provide depth and push last year’s younger group (Kenbrell Thompkins, Aaron Dobson) forward. On that front, Julian Edelman proved capable of playing the Wes Welker role the Patriots were missing. Amongst Brady’s favorite targets, Rob Gronkowski was dominant when healthy, but couldn’t stay healthy for long. His return to physical well-being could easily be a tipping point for this team’s Superbowl hopes.

2014’s Prospects…

They seem as high as any team in the NFL. They’re playing in a shaky division, where they’ve dominated almost every year since 2001. The talent base is improved from a season ago, but health concerns (Gronkowski, LB Jerod Mayo, WR Danny Amendola) and the age of their most pivotal defensive player (NT Vince Wilfork) will tell the tale this year. The Patriots may be the closest thing to a division winning lock in football, but nothing is guaranteed. That being said, I can’t see them falling behind, especially with the resiliency they displayed in 2013.

Chances At The Big One…

As bright as any team in the AFC not from Denver, the Pats can run the table up until the higher-powered offense of Denver shows up. There are many upstarts and consistently solid teams in the AFC, but none with the experience and grit New England have under their belts. The AFC Championship is almost expected.

Under The Radar…

Watch for DE Chandler Jones, who flew under the radar despite 11.5 sacks in 2013. He’s entering his 3rd season and is primed to become more disruptive with the return of Wilfork and Mayo to the fold.

2. Buffalo Bills

2013 Record: 6-10
Last In Division, No Playoff Berth

A Year Later…

Most of the news out of Buffalo has been centered around the death of longtime owner Ralph Wilson and the fallout of what may become of the franchise as a result. Beneath this story, however, there is a franchise who seems to be moving forward in a way that other teams in the AFC East not named the Patriots simply aren’t. The talent base is, on paper, superior to the Dolphins and Jets and, if games were played on paper, the Bills might have a chance to give New England a serious run at the division crown.

But, games aren’t played on paper, and this team goes into 2014 with question marks. None bigger than E.J. Manuel, who struggled in typical rookie QB fashion but caused more concern with a rash of injuries that kept him out of nearly half the season. This year, the weapons around him have improved, and look no further than rookie wideout Sammy Watkins for proof. This kid has all the skill needed to quickly become a top-10 at his position in the NFL, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets there in a hurry. The backfield remains solid, with added depth behind incumbents Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. The latter needs to improve his production, something the coaching staff has noted. This is a pivotal key for the Bills in 2014, along with improved performance across a picked-apart offensive line that has gone from strength to liability in short order.

Defensively, new coordinator Jim Schwartz has a nice bounty of talent at his disposal, especially across the defensive line. The preseason loss of breakout linebacker Kiko Alonso is going to be impossible to fully overcome, but there’s no reason why the Bills’ D shouldn’t finish in the upper half of the league in points/yards allowed. The secondary has some holes, but solid pressure from the likes of Mario and Kyle Williams should alleviate that.

2014’s Prospects…

I am going out on a limb by putting these guys 2nd in the division, but I truly believe they have no excuse not to be. So long as injuries don’t mount atop the painful loss of Alonso, this team should find a way to win at least one, possibly three more games than they did in 2013. I won’t say they’re a playoff team…but a little overachieving and the full potential reached by their younger prospects could see the Bills in the hunt.

Chances At The Big One…

Not great, not great at all. But, if Manuel turns into the player the Bills assumed he would when they made him a high-first round draft pick, the possibilities end where his progress does. Again, on paper, this team has it where it counts (for the most part)…

Under The Radar…

All the recent talk about Watkins and free agent pickup Mike Williams has left young Robert Woods as a bit of an afterthought to many. From my perspective, however, Woods could end up being the most statistically active pass catcher in Buffalo this year. If Watkins starts drawing double teams and the offensive staff is wise enough to make C.J. Spiller a viable threat on passing downs, Woods is going to have some choice opportunities in single coverage situations.

3. Miami Dolphins

2013 Record: 8-8
2nd (Tied) In AFC East, No Playoff Berth

A Year Later…

Sadly so, my Dolphins are still very much a “what if?” team, three years into head coach Joe Philbin’s tenure. This is a make-or-break season for him, and quite a few players. None more so than Ryan Tannehill, who has shown flashes of brilliance but very little consistency and some trouble with his deep accuracy. It was clear, however much it suited him, that former OC Mike Sherman’s system was not conducive to results, as Miami finished near the bottom of the league in yards gained and points scored. Enter Bill Lazor, a Chip Kelly disciple who is already hyping up fans with thoughts of a high-paced, run-heavy, wide-open offensive attack. The question that must be answered: can Tannehill perform in a faster offense? Almost as important is whether or not Lamar Miller, newcomer Knowshon Moreno (once he’s healthy) or even the perennially disappointing Daniel Thomas can chew up the yards such an offense covets. More important than all that? Is this (nearly) brand new offensive line up to the challenge of making the other questions answerable at all? With powerhouse center Mike Pouncey out at least two or three games with a bad hip, the Dolphins’ opening day offensive line will be 100% different than the line that finished the year in 2013. This, more than anything, is the biggest hurdle this team needs to jump to remain relevant.

No concerns to report defensively, but some improved play from last year’s big free agent linebackers, Dannell Ellerbee and Phillip Wheeler, is necessary. Also, filling the huge gap NT Paul Solai left when signing with the Falcons is going to be something to watch.

2014’s Prospects…

It seems that many pundits don’t believe this team can do any better than the 8-8 record they put up in 2013. I’m inclined to agree, and actually believe the scales may be tipping towards a drop in their overall record, especially with the growing pains of a new offensive scheme and line. I don’t WANT to believe it, but it’s pretty clear…this team is going to have to come together quickly in order to remain in the mix.

Chances At The Big One…

They’re just not there yet. Not as a team, not with the talent they currently will be fielding. It would be a miracle if this Miami Dolphins squad were playing in February. A welcome miracle, believe me, but the likelihood is somewhere between slim to none.

Under The Radar…

2nd round pick Jarvis Landry has been turning heads since OTAs, and much like Robert Woods, may get lost in the shuffle of opposing defenses keying on the skills of Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline and emerging threat Charles Clay at TE. If he can beat out Brandon Gibson (who was impressive up until going down for the year in 2013) for snaps in the slot, Landry could make an impact.

4. New York Jets

2013 Record: 8-8
2nd (Tied) In AFC East, No Playoff Berth

A Year Later…

Last year, I had nothing but low expectations for the Jets, who were entering the season with a litany of concerns. Mark Sanchez was being phased out for a rookie, Geno Smith, who seemed further from a sure thing than I was comfortable with. Their skill positions were in apparent shambles, and their defense was showing some uncharacteristic gaps. To go from all that shakiness and fight for an even record was probably the greatest feat any AFC East team accomplished in 2013, but this is a new year and, despite their solid offseason acquisitions and surprisingly solid play a year ago, I don’t see this team going much further (and perhaps even taking a step back).

Those additions are most prominent on offense, where Eric Decker comes in at WR, with the apparent goal of making him their #1 threat. He may very well have that ability, but it’s easy to lean more towards him being a ‘tweener who excelled around the stocked weaponry of the Broncos’ offensive attack. More vital, in my opinion, is the addition of speedster Chris Johnson, who departed Tennessee after several successful (and one unbelievable) seasons. With gas in the tank and an offensive philosophy of getting the most out of their backs, Johnson has no excuse not to excel with the Jets…so long as Geno Smith and the passing game can keep opposing defenses from stacking the box.

2014’s Prospects…

Flip a coin. Rex Ryan continues to squeeze the most of out his talent and, with an influx of it in key areas, the Jets could turn a corner in 2014 and make a serious playoff push. Or, what I think more likely, is that this team essentially has to do what they did last year just to break even; overachieve and overachieve some more. They have weapons, proven weapons in particular on the defensive line, but the holes in the secondary and uncertainty across the offense lead me to believe they’ll come up short of the postseason. How short is anyone’s guess as well.

Chances At The Big One…

This team was once led to consecutive AFC Championships by Rex Ryan and, because of that, you have to consider them the AFC version of the New York Giants: one year they can look lost, the next they can possibly fight their way into high contention. While I don’t think it likely, they’ve shown the ability to do it in the recent past. That, at least, keeps hope alive for Jets fans that something miraculous could indeed happen.

Under The Radar…

With all the talk of Chris Johnson and what he may bring to the running game, I think last year’s team rushing leader, Chris Ivory, is getting lost in the media shuffle. Ivory averaged 4.6 yards per carry on a little under 200 touches and showed tenacity in hitting the hole and discipline in waiting for his holes to open. Johnson will get his share of carries, but Ivory is going to be a focal point of this offense…or at least he should be, considering what he’s already put on tape in one season.

Offseason Power Ranking Prep

Well, hello there! It’s been awhile, hasn’t it? Some of you may be wondering if I’d abandoned this active blog after the 2013 season came to an end. Nay, I say. Nay!

Player Association

No, not the NFLPA. This is a little quiz-esque thingamabob I just had an idea for. I’m going to think of each team, and list the first person that comes to mind in association with that team.

I’ll leave a little snippet of why I thought of each person (could be a player, coach, etc), to see if you agree. These are the faces of their respective franchises, from the day of their inception up until today.

This list will go in divisional order, from the AFC East to the NFC West.

And away we go:

New England Patriots – Tom Brady

Why: Who else can you think of? Bellichick would be a close 2nd, but #12 is the man who everyone thinks of when they think of the Patriots. This isn’t a stretch. It’s way too obvious.

Miami Dolphins – Dan Marino

Why: My favorite team is my favorite team, in large part, because of Mr. Marino. He was my favorite player as a kid, remains my favorite QB to watch highlights of, and is a role model in so many ways. Dude is the Dolphins as far as I’m concerned.

New York Jets – Joe Namath

Why: As a historian of the game, some of these names may be alien to you. Joe Namath’s name, however, shouldn’t be. Easily the most popular Jets player in team history, Broadway Joe glamorized the NFL and the QB position, indirectly leading to the QB worship we’ve seen since. Oh, and he was front and center when the Jets won their only Lombardi trophy.

Buffalo Bills – Thurman Thomas

Why: Now we start to get a little controversial, no? “Jim Kelly?” “Bruce Smith?” “Marv Levy?” “Andre Reed?” “O.J. Simpson?” No, no, no, no and let’s just try to forget the last one. Thurman Thomas was the death knell of my Dolphins so many times that, when he actually signed with them to finish his career, I vividly remember feeling like a traitor to the cause. In the Wes Mantooth-Ron Burgundy dynamic, I hated him…but damn did I respect him.

Baltimore Ravens – Ray Lewis

Why: This man WAS the Baltimore Ravens, in spirit and in action, for nearly their entire existence. One of the best to ever play defense, one of the most intense and visceral individuals you’ll ever find on a football field, and quite a character off of it. ”

Pittsburgh Steelers – Jerome Bettis

Why: This is my age talking. He was the constant force for the Steelers during my younger years, the name most heard, the definition of what I would want to be if I were an NFL running back. I’ll hit you harder than you’ll hit me. The epitome of manliness, and one of the more enjoyable sideline presences any team has ever seen. The Bus keeps rolling in my mind.

Cincinnati Bengals – Boomer Esiason

Why: Well, he was front and center during the Bengals hey-day, for sure. But what brings him to mind immediately are all those broadcasts on CBS with him and Dan Marino. I can remember, more than once, where they looked ready to throw down over some QB-centered argument. I always believed that Boomer believed he was a better QB. I can respect the attitude, but the logic is so flawed that it always stuck with me as a walking, talking joke who used to try to play QB better than Marino and never could.

Cleveland Browns – Jim Brown

The last name. The records. Watching him on film is like watching every great RB you’ve ever seen mutated into one unbelievable specimen of speed, size, strength, agility and vision. He is, was, and might always be the best running back in the history of the game. The Factory of Sadness earned its title: the Browns haven’t been relevant since Brown was in their backfield.

Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning

Why: Yeah, he’s a Bronco, but he’s the reason why the Horseshoe is looked at with the respect it gets today. And he’s been gone for years. In my lifetime, I’ve never seen a more cerebral football player. The man is a coach who just happens to be one of the best QBs ever: each aspect of his character benefits the other. He’s also pretty damn funny, which never hurts. And that forehead…how can you forget that forehead?

Tennessee Titans – Steve McNair

I remember seeing him play on one leg. With broken ribs. He looked like a hospital patient, but somehow kept going, kept getting up. He wasn’t the greatest QB, but in my lifetime, he was the face and the spirit of what a team wanted to be, and that’s why he’s the Titan amongst men in my mind.

NOTE: If we include the Oilers, as we should, this changes to Warren Moon. No explanation is needed, I think.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Mark Brunell

Bit of a running QB theme here, huh? It’s inevitable, I suppose, in the modern NFL. When the Jaguars became a team, it was Brunell who led them, along with a certain head coach who I’m not going to mention because he belongs to another team (I just ruined a future answer for you, dear readers, and for that you have my apologies). Mark wasn’t the best, but he was far from the worst and, for a relatively young franchise, he’s still their most noteworthy player to date in my mind.

Houston Texans – Andre Johnson
The youngest of the teams gets a guy who’s been there for 10 of their 11 years of existence. Nobody else can make that claim, and it doesn’t hurt that over his ten years, he’s consistently been one of the best wide receivers in the league.

Denver Broncos – John Elway

If there is a Broncos fan on the planet who has another name that pops into their head before Elway’s, I’d be floored. Floored, I tell you.

San Diego Chargers – Ladanian Tomlinson

By the time I was seriously interested in football, the Chargers were a Superbowl team. Beyond Junior Seau, I couldn’t tell you one person who was on that team off the top of my head. Years later, they would find themselves back in contention (but, inexplicably, never back in the Superbowl) with a dearth of talent. No one more talented than the 2nd LT. Watching him run was like watching somebody that was created to show other running backs how to play the position.

Kansas City Chiefs – Derrick Thomas

Another young age remembrance: hearing this guy’s name called every time the Chiefs were on television. The day he died is still engrained into my memory, as well. Those two things tend to make a man stick out, for great and tragic reasons all at once.

Oakland Raiders – Al Davis

He’s been gone for a few years now, but I cannot look at that team, their uniforms, highlights from any era (not the Madden era, the Marcus Allen/Bo Jackson era, the Rich Gannon/Jon Gruden era, none of them) without thinking of the face of the franchise. That is son is now working in much the same capacity only makes an enduring memory of a true NFL pioneer that much more obvious.

Dallas Cowboys – Emmitt Smith

This comes from a personal debate between myself and my younger brother throughout the 90’s and one that continues to this day. Whereas he thought Barry Sanders was the best back in the league, I argued for Emmitt Smith. I loved his workhorse mentality, his ability to consistently gain yardage whereas Sanders would sometimes lose yardage trying to make every run the ‘big one’. Now, Sanders was no doubt more skilled, and more exciting, but when it comes down to it, I’d still rather have an Emmitt Smith on my team. This is why, when it comes to one of the most storied sports franchises in NFL history, #22 is the first man I think of.

Philadelphia Eagles – Andy Reid

I knew much about the Eagles before Big Red came along, to be sure. But once he did, the next 14 years would cement his legacy as the greatest coach in franchise history. All of the team’s success over those years is so easily overlooked by the fact that they never won it all, but you don’t get to five NFC Championships and only miss the playoffs four times in fourteen seasons with bad leadership. In the end, I think Reid’s insistence on managing personnel and the bad memories that haunted him (his son’s suicide) were why he couldn’t do his job in Philadelphia anymore. He just took a Kansas City team from 2-14 to the playoffs in an extremely tough division. Andy Reid IS the Eagles, until somebody else comes along and makes me forget him.

Washington Redskins – Sean Taylor

Funny how tragedy burns itself into the mind, isn’t it? There is no doubt in my mind, having watched the young man play for four incredible seasons, that if he would have avoided major injuries, he would today be considered the greatest safety to ever play the game. There was nothing he couldn’t do, and nothing he couldn’t do as good or better than anyone else. That football fans lost this incredible young man was tragic; that his family and friends lost him was and remains unacceptable.

New York Giants – Bill Parcels

The Big Tuna was an NFL journeyman, revitalizing programs in New England, Dallas and the other New York squad. Before all that? He made his name with the Giants, with two Lombardis and a personality you couldn’t help but hate to love (or vice versa).

Green Bay Packers – Vince Lombardi

Needs no explanation, I think. Also, it doesn’t hurt that you hear his name at the end of every season, does it?

Chicago Bears – Mike Ditka

Many will argue George Halas, Papa Bear himself, but for me, Ditka was and still is the face of the franchise. As a player, as a coach, as a spoof subject on Saturday Night Live, as a constant source of quoteworthy and infectiously hostile media sessions. A storied franchise’s biggest story.

Minnesota Vikings – Randy Moss

By the time I was of an age where football was an addiction, Jerry Rice was still playing, and playing well, but I never saw anything like Randy Moss when he first hit the league. He left an impression on my mind that has yet to fade, despite my love for past Vikings (Tarkenton, Page, Marshall, Krause) and currents/recents as well (Randle, Carter, Peterson). Moss is 1-A in the argument of best receiver of all time…and he did it almost exclusively with his natural athleticism. Straight cash, homie.

Detroit Lions – Barry Sanders

Who else? Scott Mitchell? Maybe Calvin Johnson will have his say once he’s retired, but I doubt anything he does (or has done) will ever live up to the constant edge-of-your-seat excitement #20 gave us on a weekly basis.

Atlanta Falcons – Michael Vick

It doesn’t seem fair, does it? There have been quite a few Falcons who have done more, with less, but none that made the same impression. For good or for ill. With Vick, it was always a mix of both, on and off the field. I highly doubt Falcon fans have truly forgotten the Vick era, and won’t until they bring home a Lombardi with some other QB, Matt Ryan or otherwise.

New Orleans Saints – Drew Brees

Again, I don’t think I need to delve into details. He’s the face of the franchise behind center and in the community. A strong shoutout to Morten Anderson, however, who was always my favorite kicker during his long tenure in the league.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Warren Sapp

I really, really, REALLY can’t stand him. His on-screen personality is that of an obnoxious know-nothing who postures instead of offering any interesting perspective. But damn, was he a special player. I would pick almost anyone else, but considering the franchise and its mostly terrible history, Sapp is one of the few actual superstars to pick from, and the only one who went on to keep his name in the public eye after he retired.

Carolina Panthers – Steve Smith

Treat him well, Baltimore. A human quote machine, and a machine on the field, where he defied his diminutive frame constantly with speed, agility and fearlessness. He was and still is a special talent to watch, and no Panther has come close to matching his Carolina legacy. Cam Newton, I wish you luck in that endeavor.

San Fransisco 49ers – Joe Montana

Montana? Rice? Walsh? Young? Lott? Craig? Owens? Harbaugh? Kaepernick? Gore?

Montana. Duh.

Seattle Seahawks – Shaun Alexander

A product of the times, I suppose. I think their current team has a handful of guys who will replace him in my mind before long, but before this team was cream of the crop, Alexander was their Barry Sanders (as in, the running back that drew attention away from the fact that the rest of the team wasn’t that good).

St. Louis Rams – Kurt Warner

The Greatest Show On Turf had an amazing side story to it, and it belonged to Warner. From an undrafted practice squader to a grocery bagger to an NFL and Superbowl MVP. Hollywood rarely puts together scripts as engaging as his life story. The Rams have more of a storied history than some may think, but for me, it was Warner and the turn of the decade Rams that caught my attention the most.

Arizona Cardinals – Larry Fitzgerald

Because…well…who else? Seriously. I thought about it for awhile (against my own rules, I know, but I had to see if any other names came to mind…none did) and this is all I could come up with. Doesn’t say much about the franchise, does it? Or maybe it’s a gap in my football history I need to fill.

Going with the former.

Aaaaand, that’s that. Would love to hear from you on any of these that seem dead on, dead wrong, whatever.

Bulk Seasons In Review – Formal Apology

My absence of content in the past month or so is very much inexcusable, but I hope you’ll accept my sincere apology. In an effort to get at least a basic summary of the remaining teams on record a few days before the draft, I’ve bulked together those teams I didn’t more comprehensively review already. Also, a short explanation of why I chose not to follow the suit of every other football guru and make a mock draft of my own, following the reviews.

This breaks down by division, starting with the AFC East and ending with the NFC West.

 

AFC East

Miami Dolphins – 8-8 (Regular Season) (Missed Postseason)

Brief Review: Their was more fight in this team than I expected, and less wins than might have been earned with a handful of better plays. Seemingly every game was decided on one or two ‘hinge’ plays, a deciding factor that separates good teams from great ones. They’re on the cusp, but time will tell. The production of Ryan Tannehill didn’t jump as drastically as some Dolphins fans would have liked, but overall the offense was more competent in the passing game despite the worst offensive line in football. This must be addressed, along with moderate weaknesses in the back seven of the defense, if the Dolphins hope to unseat the Patriots going forward.

MVP: Brian Hartline, WR

Biggest Disappointment: Johnathan Martin-Richie Incognito/Whoever else fiasco

Early 2014 Prediction: 9-7, No Playoff Berth

New York Jets 8-8 (Regular Season) (Missed Playoffs)

Brief Review: The Jets shocked many people by not dwelling in the basement they seemed destined for, clawing their way to a respectable (given their talent base) even record. The emergence and continued growth of their stout defensive linemen Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson were the foundation of Rex Ryan’s always relevant defense, but this team has more needs than wants right now, and can’t expect to overachieve to reach their goals. General Manager John Idzik brought in former All-Pro Chris Johnson to help in the running game and Eric Decker to fortify the pass, but this draft will be key to improving a roster that is lacking talent at vital positions. Time will tell if the Michael Vick signing helps or hinders the overall production at the QB position, whether he or Geno Smith are starting.

MVP: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE

Biggest Disappointment: Offensive stagnancy and Geno Smith’s lack of production, even for a rookie.

Early 2014 Projection: 7-9, No Playoff Berth

Buffalo Bills (6-10) (Missed Playoffs)

Brief Review: The tides continue to shift in Buffalo, as the defense took a step forward from their 2012 doldrums only to see their offense, keyed by a strong running game and hopeful aspirations for first round rookie QB E.J. Manuel, never get past their theorized productivity. Injuries to both of their backs and Manuel seemed to derail the offense, and their defense, despite obvious improvements, still underachieved considering their talent base. Losing Jarius Byrd will weaken their secondary regardless of how they address the safety position, and much depends on the continued improvement of Manuel and the last couple of draft classes, as this team’s veterans have proven to be nothing more than money draining middle-of-the-road types.

MVP: Kiko Alonso, MLB

Biggest Disappointment: Injuries and underachieving ‘studs’.

Early 2014 Projection – 5-11, No Playoff Berth

NFC North

Baltimore Ravens 8-8 (Regular Season, Missed Postseason)

Brief Review: As much as it was expected, the fashion in which the Ravens missed the playoffs coming off of a Superbowl victory was not. With the strength of their offense, despite overpaying the overhyped Joe Flacco and expecting too much from a thin receiving corps, residing in their backfield, the combination of Ray Race and Bernard Pierce couldn’t break more than three yards per carry on the year. The offensive line was a major mess, but in typical Ravens fashion, GM Ozzie Newsome has already begun to plug it up. Signing Eugene Monroe to an extension after trading for him last year was pivotal, and the addition of Steve Smith will add a needed veteran presence to the passing game, improving Flacco’s game in the process. The defense needs to see young investments begin to more fully contribute.

MVP: Justin Tucker, K

Biggest Disappointment: Where’s the run?

Early 2014 Projection: 9-7, Wildcard

Cincinnati Bengals 11-5 (Regular Season, Won Division)

Brief Review: No doubt 11-5 is impressive in the NFL, but with this team’s level of talent, they seemed to struggle more than necessary through various stretches. The jury, surprisingly, is still out on QB Andy Dalton. How much longer HC Marvin Lewis and the Bengals brass keep him behind center is all up to Dalton, but if he doesn’t show more consistency, the choice will be made for him. Giovanni Bernard was a revelation of big play ability at HB, A.J. Green continued to show his elite abilities and the defense was quite often as stifling as any in the league. The loss of DC Mike Zimmer may or may not hurt them, and their relative inactivity in the offseason might have a similar effect, but this is a team stacked with talent with little room for excuse.

MVP: Tie between A.J. Green (WR) and Vontaze Burfict (OLB)

Biggest Disappointment: One-and-Done playoff appearance, a sad trend for the Bengals.

Early 2014 Prediction – 10-6, Division Champs

Pittsburgh Steelers 8-8 (Missed Playoffs)

Brief Review: The Steelers were, to quote an infamous coaching rant, who I thought they’d be: average. Too many losses, too much age, and slow balancing of that age with a lack of young prospects had Pittsburgh struggling to remain relevant until they hit a bit of a stride on the back half of the season. With a dwindling receiving corps, an aging roster signifying a moderate transitional period and many gaps in their talent base, the Steelers will have to pull off some magic to stay relevant in 2014 in a strong NFC North.

MVP: Ben Roethlisberger, QB

Biggest Disappointment: The slow start kept a hard fighting team out of playoff contention down the stretch, where a handful of close/inexcusable losses could have translated into a postseason berth.

Early 2014 Projection: 7-9, No Postseason Berth

Cleveland Browns 4-12 (Missed Playoffs)

Brief Review: The Factory Of Sadness continued to pump out the depression, once again floundering in most aspects of the game, particularly on offense. The question of quarterback is still unsolved, their running game was absent and is now dependent on a career backup (ex-Texan Ben Tate) and, apart from the sudden emergence of WR Josh Gordon and a glimmer of hope from TE Cameron Jordan, not much to be hopeful for going into 2014. A(nother) new regime will seek to find the answers to the problems that have plagued this team since they were reinstated into the league over a decade ago.

MVP: Josh Gordon, WR

Biggest Disappointment: The flop that was Brandon Weedon.

Early 2014 Projection: 4-12, No Playoff Berth

Tennessee Titans 7-9 (Missed Postseason)

Brief Review: Close, but not as close as their record might indicate, the Titans spent most of 2014 fighting for seven wins with limited talent while losing key players like Jake Locker to injury all the while. It’s not set in stone that Locker is the future at QB, but he was showing signs of improvement before the injury. They’ve lost more than they’ve gained in free agency, but that might not necessarily be a bad thing considering what they had wasn’t enough to push them over the hump. A replacement for Chris Johnson must be found, because this team cannot mask their inability to run with a dominant passing game. Losing Alterraun Verner stings as well, and their secondary is a hole that needs filling.

MVP: Bernard Pollard, SS

Biggest Disappointment: Losing Locker and perhaps setting him back in his development in the process.

Early 2014 Projection: 6-10, No Playoff Berth

Houston Texans – 2-14 (Missed Postseason)

Brief Review: I still have a hard time believing what I saw from this team in 2013. I’m slowly coming to realize that, despite some of the top-end talent that one focuses on (Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Duane Brown, J.J. Watt, Brian Cushing), the rest of the roster fluctuates between decent and backup quality depending on where you look. It was no accident that this team went 2-14, but it was a blunder the likes of which nobody was unaccountable: gone is HC Gary Kubiak, QB Matt Shaub and, hopefully, the stigma of being the worst team in football despite having a handful of the best players in football.

MVP: J.J. Watt, DE

Biggest Disappointment: The sudden and total collapse of Matt Shaub as a viable starter in the NFL.

Early 2014 Projection: 7-9, No Postseason Berth

Denver Broncos 13-3 (AFC Champions, Lost In Superbowl)

Brief Review: The best offense in the history of the NFL? The numbers say so. The Seahawks might argue otherwise. In a surprisingly naive attempt to improve, the Broncos have gone off the deep end in signing big-name defensive free agents to shore up a side of the ball that will do nothing to help Peyton Manning run a more balanced offense. If Monte Ball isn’t the answer at running back (not saying Knowshon Moreno was, but he’s gone now, and so is his production from last year), the Broncs will find themselves in similar situations as they found themselves against physical defenses. Losing Eric Decker won’t hurt as much, as former Steeler Antonio Brown is a clear upgrade.

MVP: Peyton Manning, QB

Biggest Disappointment: How can it not be that Superbowl flop of a performance?

Early 2014 Projection: 12-4 (Division Champs)

San Diego Chargers 9-7 (Wildcard)

Brief Review: No team fought harder (and got luckier) last year than the Chargers, who kept themselves on the edge of the wildcard hunt while the Ravens, Dolphins and Steelers essentially gave up down the stretch. No disrespect meant: this is a team back on the upswing after a couple of unusual seasons. Their defense is coming along, Philip Rivers is looking like Philip Rivers again, Keenan Allen is the real deal at WR and the team finally has a head coach at head coach instead of an offensive coordinator.

MVP: Phillip Rivers, QB

Biggest Disappointment: I expected more from Manti Te’o, personally. With the speed of the game under his belt, though…look out…

Early 2014 Projection: 8-8, No Postseason Berth

Chicago Bears 8-8 (Missed Playoffs)

Brief Review: What could have been if Jay Cutler would have stayed healthy? Not the question we need to ask. Instead, what could have been if the defense wasn’t a complete mess? We might get the chance to find the answers to both questions in 2014, but the team has a long way to go to rectify their aged, talent-deficient defense. On the plus side, a healthy Cutler, despite being less than elite, can be made to look so with the talents of Brandon Marshall, the emerging Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennet and Matt Forte around him. The NFC North will be hotly contested as it was last year, and I expect the Bears to be in the thick of it down the stretch.

MVP: Brandon Marshall, WR

Biggest Disappointment: What happened to defense in Chicago?

Early 2014 Projection: 8-8, Wildcard

Green Bay Packers 8-7-1 (Division Champs)

Brief Review: If Aaron Rodgers doesn’t miss time, they win the division with much less effort. Regardless, this team isn’t ready to compete with the big dogs of the NFC West and have done almost nothing (Julius Peppers is almost nothing) to change that this offseason. They believe in the draft to make such a difference: if Eddie Lacy can continue to produce, Rodgers stays healthy and at least two defensive draft picks this year turn into regular contributors, they might have a chance to be more than division champions.

MVP: Jordy Nelson, WR

Biggest Disappointment: The defense continues to be an achilles’ heel.

Early 2014 Projection: 10-6, Division Champs

Detroit Lions 7-9 (Missed Playoffs)

Brief Review: With the division in their reach, the Lions, in a fashion that must feel like a trend to Detroit fans, crapped the bed and not only missed their chance; they seemingly dodged it on purpose. Excuses are now a thing of the past: Jim Caldwell will hopefully solidify the point of leadership at HC, but the talent level this team has is clearly the best in the division overall. They need to start playing like it.

MVP: Calvin Johnson, WR

Biggest Disappointment: Their apparent fear of success.

Early 2014 projection: 8-8, No Postseason Berth

Carolina Panthers 12-4 (Division Champs)

Brief Review: The NFC North is going to be a hotly contested division in 2014, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say the Panthers are going to regress. In a big way. I would have said this even if they were bringing back the same roster as 2013; but they’re not, and this young upstart will have a down season before getting back into the thick of things. Just call it a hunch. Without a doubt, their 2013 was a brilliant season, particularly defensively, where they look like one of the few teams who can match up against the offensive juggernauts popping up across the league.

MVP: Luke Kuechly, MLB

Biggest Disappointment: An offseason gripe, but how do you replace every non-RB catch on your team in one offseason?

Early 2014 Projection: 7-9, No Postseason Berth

New Orleans Saints 11-5 (Wildcard)

Brief Review: Say hello to the new leader of the crowded NFC South pack. A strong team is now adding one of the best safeties in the game to their ranks in Jarius Byrd, as Rob Ryan’s newly inspired defense continues to grow and Drew Brees continues to do his Drew Brees thing. This team might have what it takes to go all the way in 2014. Losing Darren Sproles will sting, but HC Sean Payton can replace his production in a variety of ways.

MVP: Drew Brees, QB

Biggest Disappointment: Should have resigned Sproles and cut Mark Ingram, but at least they kept Pierre Thomas.

Early 2014 Projection: 13-3 (Division Champs)

Atlanta Falcons 4-12 (Missed Playoffs)

Brief Review: What? How? Julio Jones is injured, Roddy White is hobbled, Tony Gonzalez can only do so much, the offensive line collapses, Steven Jackson is hurt/ineffective when he isn’t, the defense shows up every other series. Ultimately, everything that could go wrong almost did, and you have to believe they’ll improve in 2014. By how much is anyone’s guess, but I’m not holding out hope for their lackluster D.

MVP: Tony Gonzalez, TE

Biggest Disappointment: 4-12.

Early 2014 Projection: 6-10, No Postseason Berth

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-12 (Missed Playoffs)

Brief Review: The Bucs in 2013 were a joke, and nobody in Tampa was laughing. Greg Schiano was either an utter failure or was dealing with players that wouldn’t buy in…which could be the same thing. Anyway, he’s gone, and Lovie Smith and a large amount of free agents are coming in to sway this team’s fortunes. Only problem? They seem hell-bent on giving up on young signal caller Mike Glennon, who showed a lot of promise and grit in limited time. This is going to bite them. Hard.

MVP: Lavonte David, LB

Biggest Disappointment: What happened to Josh Freeman?

Early 2014 Projection: 3-13, No Postseason Berth

Seattle Seahawks 13-3 (NFL Champions)

Brief Review: If a repeat was ever likely, this group makes it so. Proving (much to my joy) that defense can win championships just as easily as offense, the Seahawks still have most of their team in place to make another run at it. No reason to think they can’t do it, but they’ll have to claw and fight past the 49ers and Saints along the way.

MVP: Earl Thomas, FS

Biggest Disappointment: Percy Harvin’s fickle health

Early 2014 Projection: 13-3 (Division Champs)

San Fransisco 49ers 12-4 (Wildcard)

Brief Review: The next-best team in the NFC is going to have an uphill climb to keep up with the Seahawks, but no defense in the league is more gritty than this group. Offensively, however, Colin Kaepernick seemed to take a step back from his excellent beginning, leaving an unasked but lingering question of whether or not he can get the job done in the long term.

MVP: Navarro Bowman, ILB

Biggest Disappointment: Kaep’s decline.

Early 2014 Projection: 11-5, Wildcard

Arizona Cardinals 10-6 (Missed Playoffs)

Brief Review: Despite some growing pains, Bruce Arians’ new look Cardinals found some success throughout the year and, in two other divisions in the NFC, would have made the playoffs. Alas, with the Seahawks and 49ers hovering overhead, this team’s upside is limited despite their best efforts. And I cannot trust a Carson Palmer-led offense to keep mistakes to a minimum, which is going to be their downfall in a division that feeds off of poor offensive play (or causes it, in most cases).

MVP: Patrick Peterson, CB/KR

Biggest Disappointment: Publicly backing Carson Palmer as the QB to lead this team to the promised land. That’ll be the day.

Early 2014 Projection: 8-8, No Postseason Berth

St. Louis Rams 7-9 (Missed Playoffs)

Brief Review: Found a breath of fresh air in running back Zac Stacy? Alright, let’s watch our starting QB go down for the year and our passing attack disappear. One of the best pass rushers in the league? Alright, but our secondary is swiss cheese and we can’t stop the run. The Rams are a decent team, but in the NFC West, they might as well be the Browns at this point. No team is better set up to take advantage of the draft, though, with two first round picks (one of which is 2nd overall).

MVP: Robert Quinn, DE

Biggest Disappointment: Another year for Sam Bradford, another offseason questioning Sam Bradford.

Early 2014 Projection: 5-11, No Postseason Berth

Why I Am Not Posting A Mock Draft

To begin with, I never even considered doing one. Why? To be blunt, and perhaps a bit to my own shame, I’m not qualified. Unlike many NFL analysts who either are or like to pretend they are, I’m under no such illusion and have no such qualifications. If I were to even attempt a first-round mock, I would be ashamed of myself. I never considered it, and I won’t be doing it this year or any year in the future unless I start spending more time watching college ball. Why don’t I watch college ball? Because it’s college ball. This answer is enough for me, but if you need more, think of it like this: would you rather watch the best B-movies you can find, or stick with the Hollywood circle and catch the occasional glimpse at cinematic glory? No right or wrong answer, it’s just preference.

So yeah, no mock draft. No draft review, either. I may put something together that essentially comes down to guessing what each prominent draft pick might do. Of course, we can all guess which turd will flush first or whether or not it’ll rain next week, but we don’t make blogs for this, do we?

God, I’m afraid to know the answer to that question. Until next time…enjoy the draft!

 

 

 

Season In Review: Philadelphia Eagles

Overall Record: 10-6 (Regular Season) 0-1 (Postseason)

Division Winner? Indeed. The Eagles of the last three years of Andy Reid’s tenure were a paradox of a talented organization who couldn’t seem to avoid tripping over their own feet. After 14 seasons of consistently outstanding football (up until those last few seasons), Reid was let go and would land on his feet in Kansas City. Meanwhile, the Eagles brought in a man who is widely considered at the forefront of offensive innovation in football, former Oregon head coach Chip Kelly. The offseason was rife with speculation about what Kelly would bring to the Eagles, whose offensive woes were a combination of injuries (Michael Vick, the entire offensive line) and poor playcalling. It was almost a given that Kelly would fix the latter issue, but how do you prevent injuries? How do you make an offense click with Vick, who was nothing more than average over the course of his time with the Eagles?

The sluggish start to 2013 seemed to make these questions more demanding of answers. But the answers were seemingly there all along; Kelly’s training regiment proved to leave the Eagles as the league’s healthiest team throughout the season, and Nick Foles, who was little better than Vick during his short stint of starts in 2012, was once again given the reins of the offense when Vick went down, once again, early in the season.

Only this time, Foles thrived. LeSean McCoy, one of the league’s best backs who was poorly utilized under Reid, led the league in rushing. The defense, the team’s Achilles’ heel, was off-again on-again all year, but showed more fight and determination than they had in many years. All things said, Kelly revitalized the Eagles, and utilized his talent to great efficiency in taking the NFC East from the Cowboys, the only other team who posed much of a challenge in the division.

Milestones Of 2013: Clearly, Kelly’s offensive genius was the biggest. Knowing what he had in McCoy was only the beginning; also knowing that, if kept healthy, he had one of the league’s best offensive lines allowed him a wider range of playcalling. Once Foles was brought in, the offensive began to click on all cylinders, dominating many teams in a way that was reminiscent of the days of Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook. The offense wasn’t perfect, but for a first year experience, Kelly could have done no better, and neither could the Eagles offense under his direction.

The defense remains in flux, with serious weaknesses in pass rush and secondary play, but the additions of former Texans linebacker Connor Barwin and ex-Ravens corner Corey Williams were definite steps in the right direction. More than anything, defensive coordinator Bill Davis seemed to instill a toughness in his group, which ended up ranked dead last in passing yards allowed per game…but 10th in rushing yards allowed. While giving up around 18 points per game is average at best, this offensive unit is primed to put up that many points by default.

There are still lingering questions about the long-term validity of Nick Foles, and these are legitimate concerns. If he continues to progress early into next season, the question of QB in the city of brotherly love will be answered in full for the first time since the days of Donovan McNabb.

The Season In Review

It all began like a bolt of lightning, a first half against the Washington Redskins that had every Eagles fan ready to proclaim Chip Kelly the 2nd coming of Dick Vermeil. And then, a bad case of hiccups. They managed to hold off the Redskins, but would lose their next three, including two not-even-close contests against the Chiefs and Broncos. The Giants and Buccaneers would help Philly get back on track, and right around this time Foles stepped in for Vick.

After these needed victories, the Eagles would begin the process that, in hindsight, they should have begun at the start; working Nick Foles into the offense. Two losses, one to the Giants (shocking) and the other to the Cowboys (depressing) would be catalysts in trial-and-error and motivation for one of the best stretches of any team in 2013.

It all began with Nick Foles’ incredible 7-touchdown performance against the Raiders, and the Eagles would roll forward to five straight victories, including big wins against the Packers and Cardinals and an unforgettable performance (particularly by LeSean McCoy) in a snowed-out home game against the Lions. A shocking blow-out loss at the hands of the Vikings was a serious gaff, but they bounced off of that with a seriously convincing 54-11 wipeout of the Bears and stood up to the pressure by beating the Cowboys in the regular season finale/NFC East Championship game.

With Chip Kelly headed to the playoffs in his first year, the energy in Philadelphia was at a fever pitch. The actuality of being able to beat the Saints, known for their struggles on the road, was very much a real thing. The final score, 26-24, showed grit and poise even in defeat.

In all, a more successful first year for a head coach and a team loaded with misused talent could hardly have been imagined.

Future Forecast

As of the writing of this article, the Eagles have made two big splashes in free agency, aside from resigning some of their key offensive performers (LT Jason Peters, WRs Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin). The biggest of the two? It has to be Darren Sproles, the multi-purpose slash-and-burn specialist that the Saints had to lose because of their serious cap issues. It almost seems like poetic justice that it was the Eagles who would benefit from the Saints’ loss. The combination of Kelly’s offensive prowess and Sproles’ abilities seem like a match made in heaven, and what do you do, as a defense, when the league’s leading rusher and Sproles are on the field at the same time? Pray?

A bit more under the radar, but a definite improvement (and another ex-Saint, believe it or not) was Malcon Jenkins. The young safety isn’t exactly elite, but an obvious improvement over the failed experiment that was Patrick Chung (cut). These two moves, along with the resignings, show a disciplined and precise GM in Howie Roseman, who many in Philly have doubted along the way, and now the Eagles can focus in on bolstering their defense come the draft in May.

Overall Grades

QB – A-

RB – A+

WR – B

TE – C+

OL – A-

DL – C-

LB – B

CB – C-

FS/SS – D-

K/P – C-

KR/PR – D

Team MVP: LeSean McCoy, RB

Offensive MVP: Nick Foles, QB

Defensive MVP: Mychal Kendricks, LB

Rookie Of The Year: Lane Johnson, OT

Biggest Disappointment Of 2013: 2 points away from the divisional round

Very Early 2014 Projection: 11-5, Division Winners

Season In Review: Oakland Raiders

Overall Record: 4-12 (Regular Season) (No Postseason Berth)

Division Winner? No, and there isn’t a person on the planet beyond a handful of blindingly die-hard Raiders fans who thought it would happen any other way. In the midst of transitions from the top (the death of Al Davis and his son taking over the job) to the middle (new head coach Dennis Allen, formerly defensive coordinator of the Broncos, etc) and, of course, down to the field itself. The senior and deceased Davis, despite a passion for his Raiders that never waned, was simply inept at managing the entirety of the organization, and numerous draft blunders mixed with hefty contracts had the team digging out of a self-imposed black hole. If all this internal moving and shaking wasn’t enough, the other three teams in the AFC West made the playoffs in 2013. If ever the deck was totally stacked against a team…

Milestones Of 2013: Most of these came well before the season started, as Allen and new GM Reggie McKenzie began the arduous process of working the roster (and, in turn, the salary cap) to meet future needs. Their balancing act has turned a disastrous situation into the league’s most bountiful heading into 2014, as the team began free agency this year with nearly 65 million dollars to spend, an unheard of number in the history of the league. Now, what they’ve done with it so far is suspect, but we’ll get to that soon.

When looking back at the team’s 2013 season, it was readily apparent that no actual judgment of the new coaching staff could be made. No, it was the roster, a collection of low draft picks, cast-offs from other teams and a lingering mix of former Oakland draftees that either lived up to their promise or didn’t. The entire season was a test of each person on the roster, and as it stands, the majority of them failed.

At the top of the roster, there’s no telling if Terrelle Pryor is the long-term solution at QB. His play was sporadic, and injuries caused the younger Matt McGloin to start and, like Pryor, show the same growing pains. With two young men battling at the position, drafting another QB in the early rounds of the draft will come with a fair amount of criticism, but it’s hard to gauge just what they have after one year of mixed results.

Elsewhere, Darren McFadden was once again plagued by injuries, inconsistency and a below average offensive line. His reward? A new (cheap) one-year contract. Rashad Jennings, a surprise tailback who stepped up and produced much more than McFadden, is now a Jacksonville Jaguar. Go figure.

The almost total lack of production at the receiving positions, including tight end, is both a symptom of lack of quality QB play and a consistent running game as much as it is a reflection of the lack of talent overall. The offensive line has a couple of key pieces…wait, had a couple. Now, center Stefen Wisniewski is the only proven starter as LT Jared Veldheer, who impressed in limited work, is off to Arizona.

The defense? Equally bad, and not much better after free agency stripped them of most of their production. Veteran Charles Woodson provided a major boost in leadership and, in a true reflection of how bad this defense is, a big boost in production in the secondary, but beyond him and Lamarr Houston (now a Chicago Bear), the defense was a mix of middle-of-the-road veterans and rookies trying to adapt to the NFL level.

Hey, Sebastian Janikowski still has the biggest leg in football, though. In yet another reflection of how bad this year was for the team, however, he missed 4 out of his 7 attempts from 50+ yards.

The Season In Review

After five games, the Raiders actually appeared to be in fighting form, sitting at 2-3 with a divisional win over the Chargers and only one lopsided loss (against Denver, forgivable for most teams in 2013). For a variety of reasons, many of which are pure speculation (losing the will to fight, fighting for a lost cause, what have you), the rest of the year would be a series of let downs broken up by only two more victories.

A loss to the Chiefs, a bye week to collect themselves, and a solid win over the Steelers had the Raiders at 3-4. Respectable for their circumstances, but at this point, both the Broncos and Chiefs were undefeated and the writing was on the wall for the Raiders season. Oakland was drubbed by Philadelphia, 48-20, and followed it up with a loss to the lowly Giants and what would be their last win, a squeaker over the shockingly inept Texans.

The last six games would all be losses, some close, some nowhere near close (at the hands of their divisional foes in Kansas City and Denver), and all of them putting a frame around the Oakland Raiders of 2013: fighting, but getting nowhere. A team still stuck in the quicksand of so many years of terrible management. But the fight was more important than the results, of that you can be sure. It was just ‘one of those years’, as they say.

Future Forecast

The offseason, as of now, has been an utter disaster for the Raiders. Their incredible amount of cap space has been either squandered on past-their-prime or nowhere-near-prime free agents or simply left off the negotiating table for so many quality free agents who would have represented true improvement for the team. The one move that seemed to make sense, a contract agreement with Rams OT Roger Saffold, fell apart after Oakland deemed his physical inspection a failure. Saffold immediately signed a long-term deal with the Rams shortly thereafter, which begs serious questions about both the Raiders’ brass and the Rams’, whose 2013 wasn’t all that much better in comparison.

Minor free agent improvements aside, this year’s draft is one of the most pivotal in the Raiders’ history. An influx of young talent is exactly what this team needs to succeed, and they need more of it than almost any other squad in the league. With questions at virtually every position on the roster, they can only mess this up with bad scouting and management, and they’ve been very eager to show, at the very least, that their management isn’t ready to be dubbed “good” as of now. Especially not after giving money to Justin Tuck, Lamarr Woodley (Steelers) and Antonio Smith (Houston), three players on the back-ends of productive careers. Aside from snagging guard Austin Howard from the Jets (and overpaying him in the process), nothing the team has done so far has made sense, not from a financial standpoint, and especially lacking in the “let’s keep what we have and know works” mentality.

Overall Grades

QB – D+

HB – C+

WR – D-

TE – D-

OL – C-

DL – C+

LB – D+

CB – D

FS/SS – C+

K/P – B-

KR/PR – D

Team MVP: Rashad Jennings, RB

Offensive MVP: Marcell Reece, FB/TE

Defensive MVP: Charles Woodson, FS

Rookie Of The Year: Mychal Rivera, TE

Biggest Disappointment Of 2013: Darren McFadden (WHY IS HE STILL IN OAKLAND?)

Very Early 2014 Projection: 3-13, No Postseason Berth